AGP Executive Report

Energy & Power Markets: A report says OpenAI is in advanced talks to lease a proposed 10-gigawatt data centre campus on federal land in Ohio, with a possible 2028 start and massive power needs that could strain the U.S. grid by the late 2020s. Trade & Policy: Trump signalled USMCA could expire in 2036 unless renewed, adding uncertainty for Canada’s energy-linked supply chains and cross-border investment. Oil & Fuels: A separate oil-patch update highlights jet-fuel price pressure tied to Middle East disruptions, with U.S. refinery output and export demand rising while inventories stay above average. Canada Energy Angle (Local): Alberta has commissioned an independent study on the potential costs of leaving Canada, with a panel that could cost up to $1.5M—another reminder that political risk can quickly spill into business planning. Other Canada News: Canada opened World Cup play at home with a historic 1-1 draw vs Bosnia-Herzegovina, with Cyle Larin scoring late to earn the country’s first World Cup point on home soil.

Critical Minerals & Rare Earths: The U.S. House passed the DOMINANCE Act (H.R. 7037) to break China’s near-total grip on rare-earth processing, using allied supply chains that include Canada to reduce defence and tech supply risk. North America Trade Uncertainty: Trump again floated that USMCA with Canada and Mexico could expire, adding pressure to renewal talks and raising the stakes for energy-linked cross-border supply chains. Oil & Markets Watch: Jet fuel prices are rising as Middle East disruptions lift demand and U.S. refineries push record jet-fuel output, while oil-market volatility continues to ripple through Canadian-linked pricing. Uranium Deal in Saskatchewan: Cameco will buy TEPCO’s 5% stake in the Cigar Lake JV, lifting its ownership to 57.418% and keeping the project central to Canada’s nuclear fuel ambitions. Quebec Energy Policy: Quebec became the first province to ban energy-drink sales to kids under 16, a reminder that provincial rules can quickly reshape consumer demand. Steel Stress Abroad: Russia’s steel output fell to a 15-year low amid sanctions and weak demand, underscoring how trade barriers can hit industrial supply chains.

Canada–India Clean Energy Deal: Saskatchewan’s PTRC and India’s Oil India signed a collaboration framework in Calgary to work on CCUS, geothermal, subsurface energy and clean-tech research, including links to India’s mc2+ startup platform. Alberta Pipeline Push: Alberta is moving toward a proposed 1-million-barrel-per-day pipeline to Canada’s west coast, aiming to file by July 1 and later seek “national interest” status, with route options under review and major hurdles tied to Indigenous consultation, B.C. coordination and the federal tanker ban. Oil Patch Safety/Service: Cenovus is adding $300,000 over two years to keep northeastern Alberta’s Local HERO helicopter emergency service running 24/7, supporting the region’s only dedicated medevac aircraft. Energy Policy Meets Trade: Trump signalled USMCA renewal talks with Canada and Mexico could be allowed to expire, adding uncertainty to North American energy and industrial supply chains. Grid/Infrastructure Reliability: New Brunswick’s utility says it took shortcuts on a gas plant to avoid blackouts by 2028, highlighting ongoing reliability pressures in regional power planning. Market Watch—Oil & Jet Fuel: Middle East tensions are lifting jet fuel prices as US refineries increase jet-fuel yields and exports, while crude faces pressure from shifting geopolitics.

Geothermal Push: Canada is funding its first national deep geothermal roadmap, with $468,000 from Natural Resources Canada to map next-gen geothermal opportunities and priorities, led by the Canadian Deep Geothermal Coalition with Cascade Institute as secretariat. Lithium & Batteries: Vancouver’s NORAM Electrolysis Systems (NESI) secured $5.6 million in federal and BC support to scale cleaner lithium refining via a next-generation electrochemical platform aimed at boosting capacity and cutting power use. Carbon Capture Scaling: Svante Technologies won “Venture of the Year” in the Scaleup category at the Canadian Cleantech Awards, spotlighting its carbon management solutions as they move toward larger deployments. Midstream Outlook: A VettaFi discussion points to LNG exports and AI-driven electricity demand as key growth drivers for Canada-U.S. midstream infrastructure, with fee-based cash flows seen as a stabilizer. Trade Tension Watch: U.S. signals around USMCA renewal are adding uncertainty for North American supply chains even as Canada, the U.S. and Mexico co-host the World Cup. Market Pulse: Canada’s TSX rose about 300 points on strength in energy and base metals, while crude climbed and the loonie slipped.

Grid Stability Tech: A new report projects the global synchronous condenser market will climb from US$1.2B (2026) to US$1.5B by 2033 as utilities retire thermal plants and need inertia, voltage regulation and reactive power support for wind and solar-heavy grids. Trade Shock for Energy: The U.S. has signalled it will not renew USMCA, with July 1 review looming—raising uncertainty for cross-border energy and industrial supply chains. Bank of Canada Watch: The BoC held its policy rate at 2.25% for a fifth straight meeting, saying higher energy prices from the Middle East conflict haven’t yet become persistent inflation. Oil & Jet Fuel Pressure: Middle East disruptions are pushing up jet fuel prices; U.S. refinery output and exports are rising while inventories stay above average. Canada-Asia Energy Dialogue: Canada and GCC partners reviewed cooperation plans spanning energy, logistics, infrastructure and food security.

Bank of Canada Watch: The Bank of Canada held its key rate at 2.25% for a fifth straight decision, saying Canada’s economy is soft while inflation has risen, with higher energy prices from the Middle East conflict a key concern; it stressed it won’t let energy-driven price increases turn into persistent inflation. LNG & Exports: Woodfibre LNG’s CEO says Ottawa’s push to position Canada as a stable energy supplier is starting to pay off, pointing to new global buyer interest and preliminary supply deals. Markets: The TSX slipped more than 100 points as oil rose but base metals and tech dragged, while the Canadian dollar traded around 71.8 US cents. Energy Risk & Litigation: A Norton Rose Fulbright survey finds cybersecurity and data privacy disputes are intensifying across energy and other sectors, with growing AI-related litigation exposure. Grid & Power Resilience: Flooding in Manitoba’s Parkland region prompted emergency measures as heavy rain threatened more damage and outages. Energy in Daily Life: North West Company flagged fuel-cost pressure in its latest results, noting it’s working to manage freight and product costs while passing some increases to customers.

Canada-UAE Energy Talks: ADNOC is eyeing Canada’s upstream and LNG opportunities through its XRG arm, with CEO Musabbeh Al Kaabi pointing to renewed Canadian focus on energy development at Calgary’s Global Energy Show. CCUS Milestone in Alberta: Meadowbrook Carbon Storage Hub opened near Legal, Alta., with Phase 1 licensed for up to 500 kt CO2/yr and expansion targets of at least 3 Mt/yr, backed by PrairieSky and investors Marubeni and Mizuho. Power Export Update: A new HVDC link is supplying Canadian hydropower to New York City, with Hydro-Québec exporting via a 600+ km underground/underwater cable. Market Watch: Goldman Sachs downgraded Suncor to neutral after a big share run, while still citing strong oil sands and downstream performance. Weather Risk: Severe storms in southeast Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba include tornado and giant hail threats. Corporate Governance: High Arctic Energy Services named Dorraine Neal interim CFO effective June 10 after Jay Bachman’s resignation.

Alberta AI-data centre debate: A proposed “Wonder Valley” hyperscale AI project in northern Alberta is drawing pushback over power, water, land impacts and local consultation, even as backers argue it will create jobs and lock in Alberta’s AI ambitions. Geothermal spotlight: Calgary’s Eavor was named No. 2 on TIME’s World’s Top GreenTech Companies 2026 list, highlighting progress on its closed-loop geothermal system. Fusion corporate move: General Fusion appointed Joanna Cameron as General Counsel and Corporate Secretary as it prepares to go public. Local climate pressure: Edmonton mayors and councillors met to urge Prime Minister Mark Carney to prioritize “nation-building, not nation-burning” climate projects. Oil market ripple: A U.S. trade deficit narrowed in April as oil exports surged amid Strait of Hormuz disruption fears easing. Clean energy business: Revolve agreed to buy a 125MW U.S. solar development portfolio, expanding its U.S. pipeline. Trade numbers: Statistics Canada reported a $2.7B merchandise trade surplus in April, with energy exports rising.

Airline Relief: Ottawa is rolling out a $150M liquidity loan program for Canadian airlines hit by elevated jet fuel costs tied to global energy disruptions, aiming to keep summer schedules intact. Nuclear Training: Saskatchewan is getting $50,000 for the first Canadian Executive Nuclear Energy Management School at the University of Saskatchewan, delivered with the IAEA and starting this week with 40 leaders. Coal Health Fight: Saskatchewan NDP critics are escalating opposition to a planned coal extension to 2050, pointing to a June 3 letter from health groups warning about health impacts. Power & Flood Response: Manitoba communities in the Swan Valley region are dealing with severe flooding and outages, with the province mobilizing staff for damage assessments and support. Oil Patch Recognition: Southeast Saskatchewan oil veteran Doug Marten was named “Oil Person of the Year,” highlighting resilience and adaptation in the local sector. Energy Markets Watch: With Iran–Israel tensions back in focus, crude and jet fuel dynamics remain a key driver for costs and policy decisions.

Airline Fuel Relief: Ottawa is offering airlines loans of up to $150 million each to offset soaring jet fuel costs tied to the Middle East war and Strait of Hormuz disruptions, with conditions including buying Canadian and maintaining jobs. Oil Market Jitters: Oil prices are moving on Iran–Israel flare-ups, while OPEC+ is set to lift output targets next month—another reminder that geopolitics is still driving energy volatility. Saskatchewan Oil & Gas Auction: A June 2 provincial offering raised about $17.75M, led by bids in the southeast (Estevan) and the next sale scheduled for Aug. 11. Clean Power in Saskatchewan: GSI and OMNN broke ground on a 100MW solar project, backed by a financing package over CAD$200M and aiming to strengthen local power supply with Indigenous partnerships. Energy Transition Tech: McKinsey argues pulp and paper mills can use AI to cut costs amid tighter fibre markets and volatile input pricing. Hydrogen Push: Vema Hydrogen and First Atlantic Nickel & Cobalt signed an LOI to develop engineered mineral hydrogen at Newfoundland’s Pipestone XL Awaruite project.

Alberta–Ottawa Power Struggle: Pierre Poilievre says Alberta separatist concerns can be eased by changing federal policies, including repealing “anti-development” laws and pushing provinces to “lock arms” on issues like immigration and criminal justice. G7 Watch: Prime Minister Mark Carney heads to France and Ireland ahead of the G7, with talks expected to cover trade, defence, AI, quantum and critical minerals. Carbon Pricing Clash: Brussels is gearing up for a major fight over Europe’s ETS as carbon pricing faces global pushback and Canada’s own consumer carbon price has been scrapped. Energy Costs Ripple: Higher oil-linked costs are hitting everyday goods, with seafood retailers warning customers are feeling the squeeze as transport and fuel expenses rise. Uranium Supply Tightening: A new uranium outlook argues the 2026 deficit is bigger than expected as AI-driven data centre demand collides with constrained primary supply. Oil Supply Update: US crude imports from Iraq jumped to 43,000 bpd, while Canada remains the top exporter to the US at 3.677 million bpd. Fraud Alert: North Bay police warn of door-to-door scams using a defunct federal home energy rebate program to pitch roofing and driveway work.

Data Centres & Power Demand: A UN University report says global data centres already use electricity on par with major countries, and projects their power, water use and pollution will double in four years as AI ramps up. AI Infrastructure Controversy (Canada): In Hamilton, residents are pushing back on early plans for an AI data-centre buildout on the former Stelco Steelport site, raising concerns about energy and environmental impacts. Aviation SAF Reality Check: IATA says sustainable aviation fuel still covers under 1% of jet fuel use worldwide, with supply and pricing challenges leaving the green fuel promise far behind targets. Energy Prices & Geopolitics (Global, with Canada relevance): India’s LPG cylinder price hike is being blamed on West Asia tensions and Strait of Hormuz disruptions, with the government saying subsidies cushion consumers—an example of how Middle East shocks can flow into household energy bills. Travel Disruption (Cuba): WestJet and Sunwing suspend all flights and vacations to Cuba indefinitely, tied to the island’s worsening energy crisis.

Gulf Tensions and Energy Security: Iran fired ballistic missiles and drones at Bahrain and Kuwait after renewed U.S. strikes, with CENTCOM reporting interceptions and Bahrain calling it a “serious escalation,” raising risks for Strait of Hormuz shipping that underpins global oil and gas flows. Canada’s Energy Policy Process: A commentary piece says the Carney government is slowing consultation reforms for major infrastructure approvals, extending a public review timeline to July 22—an issue that could affect pipelines, energy corridors, and clean energy projects. Trade Uncertainty: The U.S., Mexico and Canada are set to miss the July 1 USMCA review deadline, extending a period of uncertainty that can ripple into cross-border energy supply chains and investment. Aviation Disruption for Cuba: Air Canada, Air Transat and Sunwing Vacations will suspend Canadian flights to Cuba indefinitely, citing the “current geopolitical situation,” adding pressure to travel and related energy demand. Midstream/Crude Trade Watch: Mexico opened a criminal probe into Ikon Midstream over alleged fuel smuggling linked to CJNG, including shipments potentially tied to U.S. and Canada.

Oil Markets: Crude benchmarks slid on renewed Iran-US tensions, with Murban down $2.82 (3.02%) to $90.68, WTI Midland off 2.69% to $91.17, and Western Canadian Select down 3.56% to $80.69. Canada-Indonesia Energy & Trade: Prime Minister Mark Carney spoke with Indonesia’s President Prabowo Subianto, flagging Middle East-driven energy-market risks and pushing deeper trade under the Canada-Indonesia CEPA, including clean tech, critical minerals, and infrastructure. World Cup Power Demand: England and Scotland World Cup group games are expected to trigger a major electricity-use surge, putting grid operators and energy suppliers on alert. Alberta Pipelines & Consultation: An opinion piece argues Alberta’s pipeline push is being undermined by consultation uncertainty, pointing to past court outcomes and warning against “dangerous bluff” rhetoric. Quebec Energy Drink Bill: Quebec’s health minister is set to table a bill targeting energy drinks for teens under 16, with debate over timing and whether to rush changes. Severe Weather Watch: Forecasters warn of potentially severe thunderstorms across the southeastern Prairies Saturday, with large hail and strong wind gusts possible.

Solar Build-Out: Ottawa is putting $15M into Saskatchewan’s Turning Sun Solar near Estevan, a 100 MW project with 10% Indigenous ownership and enough power for about 25,000 homes. AI Power Demand: Alberta’s Wonder Valley AI data centre and 9 GW power plan is drawing fire after a physicist warned it could become a planet-scale heat source, with massive fuel burn behind the scenes. Energy Prices & the Loonie: The Canadian dollar slid near an eight-week low as traders weighed next week’s Bank of Canada decision; oil weakness added pressure. Middle East Fuel Shock: A report says the Iran conflict could add $648 to the average Ontario household’s fuel costs this year, with gasoline and diesel jumping sharply since February. Diesel Squeeze in Canada: Even as gas eases, diesel prices are still climbing in Atlantic Canada, keeping pressure on home heating and summer travel costs. Regional Energy Disruption: Sunwing and WestJet indefinitely suspended Cuba trips, citing the island’s deepening crisis tied to fuel and broader economic strain. Geopolitical Escalation: The U.S. says it shot down four Iranian drones aimed toward the Strait of Hormuz and struck radar sites, underscoring ongoing shipping and energy-risk concerns.

Canada AI push: Prime Minister Mark Carney launched “AI for All,” targeting about C$200B in economic gains, 250,000 AI jobs, and lifting AI adoption from just over 12% to 60% by 2034, with a focus on sovereign compute and sustainable high-performance infrastructure tied to Canada’s clean energy buildout. Energy policy & power reliability: Quebec’s health minister is set to table a bill to restrict energy drinks for teens, but one Conservative MNA says she may delay action until after the fall election—after a 2024 death linked to caffeine and ADHD meds. Grid and data centres: Canada’s AI strategy also points to large-scale data centre growth, while broader market chatter continues around battery and storage demand. Markets watch: A Reuters poll says the Bank of Canada is expected to hold its rate at 2.25% through 2026 despite energy-driven inflation risks. Corporate power: Boralex shareholders approved Brookfield’s acquisition plan, with deal completion expected in Q4 2026. Labour & economy: B.C. added 25,200 jobs in May and unemployment held at 6.8%, easing pressure heading into summer.