AGP Executive Report

Diesel squeeze: GasBuddy says average gasoline prices fell in parts of Canada, but diesel remains a concern after record highs and warnings that a potential U.S. diesel export ban could tighten Canadian supply. Markets hit by oil: Rising oil prices dragged on U.S. stocks and pushed pressure into bond markets, with Canada’s TSX also down as crude moved higher. Tariffs ripple into industry: Stelco plans to idle part of its Hamilton plant, affecting up to 500 workers, citing U.S. tariffs squeezing demand for cold-rolled and coated steel. Energy policy debate: Alberta and Ontario premiers are set to share the stage in Calgary to talk energy policy, while Enserva’s speaker series frames Canada’s energy future around infrastructure, investment and market access. Canada–EU pivot: The EU floated a possible “associate member” path for Canada, signaling deeper integration efforts as Ottawa looks to reduce reliance on the U.S. Clean power buildout: Canadian Energies says a proposed 10 GW sodium-ion battery manufacturing and storage campus in Chatham-Kent could be a “benchmark for the world,” targeting cold-weather performance and BESS demand.

Diesel affordability push: Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre says Canada has a “diesel-price emergency” and wants Ottawa to remove all federal taxes on diesel (extend the excise cut and drop GST) until at least Canada Day, arguing Canadians pay about 32 cents a litre more than the U.S. Trade escalation: The U.S. begins a full ban on selected Canadian alcohol, dairy and motorcycles Tuesday, escalating the tariff fight after Canada retaliated with measures on about $20B of U.S. exports. Industrial labour risk: Stellantis and Unifor talks have broken down over the future of the idled Brampton Assembly Plant, with a potential Roshel defence-manufacturing bid raising union concerns. Energy efficiency investment: Morguard is launching a $145M fund (with $100M from the Canada Infrastructure Bank) to retrofit 30+ properties for at least 30% emissions cuts, using heat pumps, district energy and building-system upgrades. Canada–India ties: Trade minister Maninder Sidhu is set to visit India mid-October as CEPA talks speed up, aiming to wrap by end-2026 and support broader cooperation including energy and critical minerals. Data-centre power debate: A guest analysis argues CPPIB’s push into gas-to-power for AI data centres conflicts with its climate principles and could crowd out renewables.

Solar Circularity: Alberta will add a CA$14 fee to each new solar panel sold starting Oct. 1 to fund collection, transport and recycling after panels reach end of life, with the province saying landfill bans are coming and up to 72,700 tonnes could need managing by 2045. Diesel Affordability Push: Pierre Poilievre is urging Ottawa to cut federal diesel taxes—extending the fuel excise tax cut and removing GST on fuel—while also calling for scrapping the industrial carbon tax and the Clean Fuel Standard to spur refinery investment. Carbon Markets Move: As Alberta’s Brian Jean returns from a London CCUS summit, Ottawa is exploring an Article 6 ITMO framework that could let Canadian firms trade international emissions reductions and removals, including carbon removal and nature-based solutions. Trade Tensions, Energy Included: The U.S. is set to roll out new bans on Canadian cheese, alcohol and motorcycles, while U.S. officials say they’re “comfortable” with the Canada relationship and see no urgency on a deal—yet still point to ongoing oil, gas and potash flows. Power Supply Risk: Germany’s foreign minister says supply-chain threats and Middle East risks are driving interest in more Canadian LNG, even as the country accelerates renewables.

Canada–India diplomacy: Foreign Minister Anita Anand met India’s S. Jaishankar at UNGA, with both sides signalling they want ties “to a higher level” as Ottawa pushes CEPA talks toward a year-end finish and Modi’s expected December visit. Energy & minerals cooperation: Jaishankar also flagged momentum in energy cooperation with Venezuela, while Anand’s UN remarks stressed “strategic autonomy” and partnerships across emerging tech, critical minerals, defence production and energy. Global energy transition debate: A new “green copper” push is gaining traction, but coverage argues the term needs a clear definition and measurable standards to avoid vague claims. Market pressure: Farm Credit Canada economist Graeme Crosbie says borrowing costs are likely to “grind higher,” with markets pricing a possible Bank of Canada hike as fuel prices and trade tensions bite. Infrastructure & power: Kevin O’Leary says he’s betting on AI indirectly via electricity generation and uranium, framing power as the “picks and shovels” of the AI boom. Energy geopolitics: Ukraine’s Zelenskyy warned Russia is not ready to end the war and plans higher spending on jet-powered drones, keeping defence and energy security concerns front and centre.

Alberta Energy & Politics: A new column frames Oct. 19 Alberta referendum questions as a direct test of whether the province is better in or out of Canada, with five questions on immigration/citizenship, four on constitution/provincial powers, and a final separation process question. Oil & Gas Market Context: Multiple reports keep spotlighting how Middle East conflict and refinery/shipping disruptions are feeding fuel-price pressure, with analysts warning of broader global fuel risk. Infrastructure & Power: Niagara Parks says it has invested $7.1M to strengthen the Fort Erie breakwall and add shoreline protection and trail access along the Niagara River. Energy Investment Push: Coverage of Canada’s Investment Summit highlights energy and critical minerals as key themes for attracting long-term capital, with investors looking for TSX exposure. Energy Tech/Storage: A 75-megawatt battery storage project is underway in Ovid Township, underscoring continued grid-scale storage buildout.

Electricity Storage Build-Out: Apex Clean Energy has started construction on a 75-megawatt battery storage facility in Ovid Township, Michigan, tied to its nearby 150-megawatt Coldwater Solar farm, with commercial operation targeted for mid-2027 and Canadian Solar’s e-STORAGE supplying the lithium-ion phosphate SolBank 3.0 system. Pipeline M&A: TC Energy agreed to sell its Guadalajara-Manzanillo pipeline in Mexico (Energía Occidente de México) to ESENTIA affiliates for about C$560 million, with closing expected in the first half of 2027, as the company looks to redeploy capital into other North American growth projects. LNG Canada Phase 2 Timing: Reuters reports Shell and partners in LNG Canada could reach a final investment decision for Phase 2 as early as October, which would add 14 mtpa to bring total capacity to 28 mtpa, reinforcing Canada’s push to expand LNG exports. Home Battery Adoption Push: Enphase says 80 U.S. and Canadian utilities have approved its IQ Meter Collar for behind-the-meter installations, aiming to make home battery backup hookups easier and boost sales potential. Alberta Pump Relief: Alberta will pause the provincial fuel tax starting Oct. 1, cutting 13 cents per litre at the pumps through year-end, with enforcement promised against price gouging. Energy Policy Watch: Saskatchewan’s NDP is calling for immediate emergency financial relief for producers facing wet-weather harvest delays and rising costs, citing crop progress far below the five-year average.

Oil & Gas M&A: Canada’s oil patch is on track for its biggest mergers and acquisitions wave in a decade, with deal activity topping $30B this year as companies combine from “positions of strength” amid higher prices and Middle East-driven crude volatility. Permitting Reform: Ottawa’s Building Canada Strong Act (Bill C-39) aims to speed federal reviews with “one project, one decision, in one year,” moving assessments and consultations to a more concurrent process—an approach advanced by the advanced biofuels sector as key to earlier low-carbon fuel buildout. Electricity Costs: Utilities and regulators are flagging tighter supply and grid aging as drivers of higher power bills; Ameren’s non-summer rate hike in central Illinois is a reminder of the pressure Canadian consumers could face as demand rises. Trade & Food Manufacturing: Farm Credit Canada warns energy and freight volatility plus trade restrictions are squeezing margins for Canada’s food and beverage manufacturers, with sales gains driven more by price than volume. Canada-Vietnam Energy Ties: Vietnam’s President Tô Lâm upgraded relations with Canada to a strategic partnership, with Carney pointing to cooperation across energy and clean energy. Project Timelines: PowerCo’s Ontario battery plant work is continuing, but operations are now expected in 2029—pushing the schedule back two years. Policy Watch: A federal panel is urging Atlantic provinces to create a single electricity market, while critics argue Canada’s “mega” tax and project-approval push still needs better execution.

EU Industrial Policy: EU industry ministers discussed the “Made in Europe” rules for public aid and procurement under the Industrial Acceleration Law, with key questions still open on how much production must be inside the bloc versus allowing partners like the UK, Canada, Norway and Japan. Canada-EU Trade/Tech: EU Parliament president Roberta Metsola urged remaining holdout EU states to ratify CETA and said Canada-EU talks aim to lock in a Digital Trade Agreement in Montreal, with AI expected to be covered across the deal rather than in a standalone chapter. Competition & Gas Prices: Canada’s Competition Bureau reached a consent deal with gas sales data provider Kalibrate, saying changes to how it shares retail sales data could boost competition and help lower pump prices. Carbon Markets Framework: Ottawa is exploring a policy framework for trading internationally transferred mitigation outcomes (ITMOs) to help Canadian firms participate in international carbon markets, including carbon removal and nature-based solutions. Energy Infrastructure & Security: Bahrain told the UN waterways must not be used as weapons, citing risks to trade and energy from hotspots including the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea. Clean Energy Growth: Vanguard Renewables agreed to acquire Generate Upcycle’s North American operations, expanding food-waste-to-renewable natural gas capacity across the U.S. and Canada. Pipeline/Trade Tensions: A report highlights how municipalities are seeing early impacts from U.S. trade disruption, with many communities forming tariff-response teams as pressures rise. Housing in the North: Construction is underway in Pinehouse, Sask., on a six-unit affordable rental project funded jointly by Canada and Saskatchewan.

Federal Energy Policy: Ottawa tabled Bill C-39 under the Building Canada Strong Act, aiming for a one-year federal target for major-project reviews and decisions (“one project, one review, one year to decision”), with the oilsands impact depending on project type. Carbon Capture & Indigenous Partnership: At Carbon Capture Canada in Edmonton, Enbridge-backed discussion highlighted “trust” and early involvement with First Nations, including claims of up to 50% ownership offers for a proposed Wabamun carbon hub. Uranium & Nuclear Supply Chain: Markets kept a close eye on uranium exposure as Australian nuclear themes drew investor attention, with Canadian-linked interest also surfacing around Paladin Energy’s Patterson Lake South. Geopolitics & Energy Security: Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson rebuked PM Mark Carney over remarks on threats, while Ukraine’s Zelensky told the UN Russia is using fighters from 47 countries—both underscoring how conflict risk keeps energy markets jittery. Canada–Europe Pivot: Carney’s push for deeper Canada-EU ties continued, including talk of associate membership as a way to reduce reliance on the US.

OECD Outlook: The OECD says AI spending is propping up global growth, but the Middle East-driven energy shock is getting “more entrenched,” with 2027 growth forecast to improve only slightly and risks (energy jitters, El Niño, higher bond yields) could hit growth and lift inflation. Diesel Export Ban Watch: Trump is floating a potential U.S. diesel export ban to lower prices, but experts warn it could spike costs worldwide and hit Canada too. Climate Court Fight: A federal court is letting a challenge to Ottawa’s climate plan proceed, keeping legal pressure on the government’s greenhouse gas record. Nuclear & Power Buildout: Ontario is moving ahead with major Pickering refurb contracts, including retube/boiler work and turbine-generator replacement, targeting up to 2,200 MW after refurbishment. Lithium Tech Push: Rock Tech Lithium is using Siemens’ digital process twin to speed development of its Red Rock refinery feasibility study. Renewables & RNG Deal: Vanguard Renewables will buy Generate Upcycle’s Ontario and U.S. food-waste-to-RNG facilities, adding major capacity tied to Canada’s clean fuel rules. Water Infrastructure: Greatario and IXOM Watercare are spotlighting active mixing tech to improve water quality in storage tanks across Canada. Mining Leadership: Mining Association of Canada names Ben Chalmers as its next president and CEO starting Jan. 1, 2027.

Canada-India Trade Push: Prime Minister Mark Carney says Narendra Modi is expected to visit Canada in December as both sides aim to wrap up the CEPA by year-end, with talks also set to resume Oct. 5. Project Permitting & Trade Corridors: Ottawa’s new “Building Canada Strong Act” package would speed federal reviews to within a year and create “national trade corridors,” while updating port governance and cutting red tape for lower-risk transport work. Energy Markets & Currency: Oil prices eased on U.S.-Iran diplomacy hopes, weighing on the Canadian dollar as investors watch crude moves. Uranium Financing: Toronto’s Global Atomic won conditional approval for up to US$414.2M in U.S. DFC-backed debt for its Niger Dasa uranium project—next test is execution and export routes. Nuclear Supply Chain: Samsung C&T joined a European SMR push for the BWRX-300, with partners targeting early commercialization and repeatable deployments. North American Energy ETF: Ninepoint launched its first U.S.-listed ETF betting on North American energy integration, bundling oil, gas, pipelines, nuclear/uranium and key minerals. Alberta Separation Cost Debate: A new report estimates separation could cost Alberta up to $170B over five years, ahead of an Oct. 19 referendum.

Major Projects Bill: Assembly of First Nations chief Cindy Woodhouse Nepinak warns Prime Minister Mark Carney against “abusing” majority power as Bill C-39 (Building Canada Strong Act) shifts reviews of big projects like pipelines and power lines to the Canada Energy Regulator, raising concerns about consultation and First Nations rights. Gas Tax Pause: Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne introduced legislation to extend the federal gas tax pause for more months, aimed at easing costs for farmers, families and truckers. Regulatory Speed-Up Backed: Western business groups say the same major-projects push could improve competitiveness and investment certainty, while urging further regulatory and immigration changes. Energy Markets & Shipping Risk: G7 foreign ministers, including Canada, urged Iran to end support for Yemen’s Houthis, warning attacks threaten Red Sea shipping, energy security and fertilizer/food supply chains. Oil Patch & Power: TC Energy agreed to sell Mexico’s Guadalajara-Manzanillo pipeline for $560M, while markets tracked crude volatility and a TSX gain led by tech and base metals. Home Heating & Safety: Ontario fined Upper Canada Fuels $10,000 after a furnace service lacked required supervision by a properly certified technician. New Build in Lithium: EMP Metals says commissioning is complete for its Project Aurora lithium refining demonstration plant in Saskatchewan and it’s now in full-time operations. Diesel Pressure: Ontario farmers at the International Plowing Match say record diesel costs are squeezing operations, with calls for more support. Data Centres & Power Use: Ottawa’s voluntary Responsible Data Centre Development Principles ask operators to cover electricity-system costs, conserve water and be transparent with host communities. Air Travel Demand: Air Canada will suspend its Vancouver–Singapore direct route on Jan. 26, 2027, citing insufficient demand for the ultra-long flight.

Canada-EU trade push: Prime Minister Mark Carney is in Europe-building mode, with the EU floating “associate member” status for Canada—an idea that could reshape market access for Canadian exporters even as critics warn it’s undefined and could trigger new friction with the U.S. Project approvals reform: Ottawa unveiled draft legislation to speed up federal reviews for major natural resource projects, aiming for a one-year decision timeline and parallel permitting, while also making it harder for labour ministers to order workers back on the job. Potash flashpoint: Trump says the U.S. is working on a “massive” potash deal with Belarus at prices below Canadian supply; Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe calls it “blood potash,” warning it would bankroll Russia-linked repression. LNG and trade diversification: Canada says talks on free trade deals with the Philippines and ASEAN are over 90% complete, with energy—especially LNG—front and centre for supply security. Grid wildfire risk: U.S. agencies are studying how wildfires threaten the grid and how grid infrastructure can contribute to ignition, highlighting growing resilience needs across North America.

Canada–EU Pivot: French President Emmanuel Macron backed Mark Carney’s push for Canada to become the EU’s first “associate member,” with talks focused on defence, space infrastructure, energy cooperation, critical minerals and technology—while the EU concept still lacks a defined legal status. Trade & Tariffs: Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem warned new U.S. tariffs and Middle East-driven oil price risks could cut Canada’s fourth-quarter growth to below 1% and lift inflation pressures. Tax Policy for Energy Investment: Carney confirmed the new Productivity Mega Deduction could cover oil and gas production (not just pipelines), aiming to broaden investment incentives and boost productivity. Nuclear Power Buildout: Ontario’s Pickering refurbishment begins with four reactors coming off-line for about a decade, with a projected $26.8B price tag to extend output for decades. Fertilizer Shock: Trump said he’s working on a “massive” potash deal with Belarus at a lower price than Canada, drawing market jitters despite logistics and capacity limits. Ports & Exports: Vancouver Fraser Port reported record first-half cargo volumes as grain and crude oil exports rose, supporting a shift toward Indo-Pacific buyers. Renewables/Organics: Vanguard Renewables agreed to buy Generate Upcycle’s North American organics digesters, adding major renewable natural gas capacity across Ontario and New York.

Canada–France energy and space push: Prime Minister Mark Carney and French President Emmanuel Macron agreed in Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon to deepen cooperation on space infrastructure (launch and ground reception), defence, energy transition, climate resilience and business ties, as Ottawa pivots toward Europe amid tougher U.S. trade pressure. EU “associate member” debate: Macron backed the idea of Canada becoming the EU’s first associate member, while Canadian Conservatives and Bloc Québécois leaders warned it could become a sovereignty or energy “Trojan horse” issue. Diesel and oil market shock: Reports of Trump mulling a U.S. diesel export ban came as crude and diesel dynamics stayed volatile, with analysts pointing to Middle East disruption and refining margins—an issue with direct knock-on effects for Canadian freight and food supply chains. Canada–India CEPA talks: Foreign Affairs Minister Anita Anand said she expects to meet India’s Jaishankar to advance the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement, with energy and critical minerals among the sectors in scope. Singapore–Canada partnership: Singapore and Canada signed a framework covering AI, quantum, energy security, investment and supply-chain stability, with fuel-flow risks from the Middle East on the agenda. Cyber risk to power systems: U.S. agencies warned that AI is helping attackers target internet-exposed industrial control systems, raising the stakes for grid and water infrastructure security. Cuba grid collapse: Cuba’s power grid failed again, cutting millions off amid sanctions that limit fuel and critical supplies.

Canada–EU energy and security push: Prime Minister Mark Carney met French President Emmanuel Macron in Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon to deepen economic and defence ties, with both sides flagging energy as a priority amid global supply stress, including LNG and critical minerals. EU financing angle: The European Investment Bank’s Nadia Calviño said the “time is ripe” to expand cooperation with Canada, exploring frameworks to finance Canadian critical-minerals projects. Ratepayer protection for AI power demand: Nova Scotia’s interim Liberal leader Iain Rankin introduced a bill that would force new data centres to cover the full electricity and infrastructure costs they impose, aiming to stop ratepayers from footing the bill. Canada–Ukraine energy cooperation: Ottawa pledged more support for Ukraine’s energy security and reconstruction, including a $10-million top-up to the Ukraine Energy Support Fund and loan guarantees tied to gas purchases and fuel reserves. Energy market backdrop: OPEC reported oil prices rose in August on geopolitical risk and strong Asian demand, while speculators increased bets—an external pressure point for Canadian energy costs.