AGP Executive Report

Canada-U.S. Trade War: Canada’s retaliatory tariffs on $27.6B of U.S. imports (15% to 50%) kicked in at 12:01 a.m., targeting sectors like steel and aluminum, dairy, appliances, agricultural equipment, pulp and paper, plastics and electronics—raising costs risk for cross-border supply chains tied to energy and mining. Energy Prices & Geopolitics: Oil is edging back toward $100 as Middle East attacks tighten supply expectations, pushing U.S. gas prices higher; meanwhile Europe is bracing for another hit as Iran-war-linked LNG disruptions lift European gas prices and drain storage heading into winter. Oilpatch Corporate Moves: Enbridge says CEO Greg Ebel will retire at year-end and names Michele Harradence as successor, as the company continues major gas utility integration. Natural Gas & Local Opposition: Elsipogtog First Nation in New Brunswick is demanding a stop to construction of a controversial NB Power gas plant, citing impacts to moose habitat and traplines. Infrastructure & Exports: The Port of Thunder Bay is exploring more intermodal and inbound cargo options to balance trade as downstream investments and transport capacity expand.

Canada-U.S. Tariff War: Ottawa’s retaliatory tariffs on about $20B of U.S. goods took effect Tuesday (15%, 25% and 50% rates), hitting items like steel, dairy, appliances, cosmetics and farm equipment, as the broader trade fight with President Trump escalates. Middle East Oil Shock: Oil stayed near $100 as Iran said it’s close to an Oman deal for Strait of Hormuz shipping, even after U.S. strikes on Iranian tankers and renewed U.S.-Iran tit-for-tat attacks raised disruption fears. Falklands Legal Fight: Argentina filed a criminal complaint targeting companies including Canada’s JHI Associates over alleged unauthorized Falklands-area drilling, escalating sovereignty and resource-control tensions. Energy Transition Markets: New market reports project biodiesel growth to $101.35B by 2035 on mandates and refinery conversions, while cryogenic equipment demand is forecast to nearly double by 2035 amid LNG and hydrogen buildouts. Climate & Water Stress: BC salmon are showing signs of drought-linked harm, with the Salmon River’s warming and irrigation pressures raising concerns for chinook survival. Renewables & Grid: BC Hydro and FortisBC are promoting expanded free home energy upgrades, as the home battery debate continues over repair and sizing tradeoffs.

Canada–U.S. Tariff Fight: Labour Day diplomacy is split: U.S. President Donald Trump used the holiday to attack Democrats while Canada’s PM Mark Carney focused on the tariff dispute, with new Canadian counter-tariffs on hundreds of U.S. products set to land Tuesday, raising pressure on cross-border supply chains and energy-linked industries. Power Storage in Ontario: AECOM says it’s doing front-end engineering and design work for TC Energy’s proposed 1,000MW Meaford pumped-storage project, targeting long-duration storage of about 10,600MWh and aiming for operation around 2035. Solar Battery Safety in P.E.I.: A battery fire at Summerside’s Sunbank Solar/Battery Farm triggered a shelter-in-place order for nearby residents; the city says the fire was contained but crews stayed on scene as the cause remains unknown. Climate & Health Economics: A UN report argues integrated climate and clean-air action can deliver large economic and health gains, reinforcing the policy case for cleaner energy and pollution cuts. Renewables Risk Watch: The P.E.I. incident adds to scrutiny of battery storage safety as Canada expands solar and storage capacity.

Uranium Exploration: Infini Resources has kicked off a 5,000-metre diamond drilling push at its Portland Creek uranium project in Newfoundland, including the first test of a demagnetised granite target after soil sampling hit 7.5% uranium oxide. Oil & Pipeline Politics: Victoria city council has formally joined opposition to the proposed West Coast oil pipeline that would move Alberta crude to B.C., arguing environmental risks outweigh economic benefits. Energy Security & LNG: A new report warns Europe can’t ignore the LNG crisis, as geopolitical tensions around the Strait of Hormuz keep tightening supply and raising costs. Critical Minerals Watch: Malawi’s rare earth and critical minerals boom could reshape its economy, but experts warn of the familiar risk of exporting raw value without strong local processing. Geopolitics & Deterrence: Philippine Defence Secretary Gilberto Teodoro says China may try to exploit cuts to U.S.-South Korea exercises, while insisting U.S. commitments to Manila remain unchanged. Policy & Power Demand: Canada’s data-centre buildout is drawing fresh federal expectations on responsible development as communities and governments push back on energy and land impacts.

Canada–U.S. Trade War: Trump escalated his dispute with Canada, calling the Canadian dollar “unacceptable” and threatening further action as both sides trade steep tariffs that hit autos, steel, aluminum and dairy. Middle East Oil Shock: Iran and the U.S. traded fresh accusations and strikes tied to shipping and warships, keeping a geopolitical premium on crude and adding to already-stressed fuel markets. Ontario Pumped Storage Protest: A Georgian Bay group staged a waterborne protest against TC Energy’s proposed Ontario Pumped Storage project, arguing local concerns aren’t being heard. Critical Minerals Push: Saskatchewan’s McIlvenna Bay copper-zinc mine has started producing concentrate and is moving toward commercial output later in 2026, supported by new power infrastructure and federal funding. Nuclear Development (U.S. spillover): The U.S. DOE’s latest Nuclear Energy Launch Pad round selected 12 companies across 13 projects, underscoring continued momentum in small-scale nuclear—relevant for Canada’s own clean-power ambitions. Market Mood: Bank of Canada held its key rate at 2.25% while warning tariffs and oil could force policy changes.

Pipeline Politics: Victoria city council voted to oppose Alberta-to-B.C. West Coast Oil Pipeline plans and asked Mayor Marianne Alto to file a submission against either building the 1,250-kilometre line or declaring it a national-interest project under the Building Canada Act. Trade & Critical Minerals: Canada is pushing back on U.S. moves by saying it won’t treat critical minerals as an asset to share, with Energy Minister Tim Hodgson framing the response as “I don’t get mad, I get even,” tied to the North Coast Transmission Line that would power new mines. Market Sentiment: A Nanos Research poll for CTV found most Canadians back dollar-for-dollar counter-tariffs against the U.S. and strongly support rejecting a trade deal. Mining Finance: Natural Resources Canada data show capital spending in Canada’s minerals sector fell in 2025 and is only modestly recovering for 2026, with lenders demanding stronger schedules, permits, and cost realism. Global Energy Risk: Argentina says it will investigate and sanction firms working on hydrocarbons near the Falkland Islands without authorization, raising uncertainty for Canadian-linked activity.

Energy Security & Shipping: The U.S. says it destroyed three Iranian oil tankers after missile attacks targeted U.S. Navy warships near the Strait of Hormuz, escalating fears for global crude flows. Nuclear Momentum: A U.S. report highlights four privately developed test reactors reaching criticality this summer, as data-centre demand keeps pushing nuclear interest. Canada–U.S. Trade Pressure: Commentary and reporting keep circling Ottawa’s counter-tariffs and the broader “taxation war” framing, with knock-on concerns for Canadian living costs and energy-linked supply chains. Canadian Energy Policy Watch: Multiple items track Ottawa extending federal fuel excise tax relief into 2027 and ongoing market jitters around diesel and oil prices. Agriculture & Energy Link: Farmers’ groups warn that uncertainty in trade and input costs is rising, while speakers stress energy security as part of food sovereignty. Power Sector/Infrastructure: Coverage also points to rail and domestic manufacturing moves tied to trade tensions, with implications for energy demand and logistics.

Canada-U.S. Trade: Ottawa says there are no plans to restart talks over the Labour Day weekend as retaliatory tariffs kick in Sept. 8, after Trump’s 50% levies on $28B of Canadian imports—setting up a fresh round of cross-border tariff escalation. Energy Security & Shipping: The EU is weighing how to handle Arctic drilling and mining as cooperation in the High North “fractures,” with security concerns rising as NATO expands. Middle East Energy Risk: Trump dismissed talk of renaming the Strait of Hormuz, but the waterway remains central to global oil flows amid renewed U.S.-Iran strikes and attacks on commercial shipping. Critical Minerals & Transition Supply: A new EU push on critical minerals supply chains highlights ongoing energy-transition gaps—and Canada is repeatedly cited as part of the solution. Corporate Energy Update: Norway’s Aker Solutions names a new CEO, while Glencore marks progress at its all-electric Sudbury copper mine, underscoring Canada’s push to cut emissions in heavy industry.

Labour Market Watch: Statistics Canada says Canada lost 42,000 jobs in August and B.C. shed 5,500, with B.C.’s full-time employment down 26,000 and unemployment up to 6.5%—a sign trade shocks are biting. Nuclear Supply Chain: Bruce Power will host an OCNI summit to connect nuclear suppliers with procurement leaders, aiming to strengthen made-in-Canada energy resilience. Fuel Cost Relief: Ottawa extended the federal fuel excise tax suspension through Jan. 31, 2027, cutting gasoline by 10 cents/litre and diesel by 4 cents/litre, even as counter-tariffs loom. Business Support for Tariff Fallout: Ottawa announced $11.6M for eight Saskatoon businesses under the Regional Tariff Response Initiative, targeting jobs, productivity and new markets. Community & Cancer Care: Bruce Power and supplier partners donated $20,000 to Childcan for families affected by childhood cancer. Wildfire Readiness: PM Mark Carney says Ontario is getting more early warning and detection funding as the province faces its worst wildfire season on record. Energy Infrastructure: Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe heads to the U.K. World Nuclear Symposium to push nuclear trade and investment ties.

North Coast Transmission Line Fight: B.C. Hydro’s North Coast Transmission Line plan would remove 12.4 hectares of protected Swan Creek area near Terrace, raising alarms about old-growth, moose habitat, wetlands and species-at-risk impacts. Renewables Backlash: Alberta’s UCP adds a $14-per-solar-panel “recycling fee” and bans panels from landfills starting Oct. 1, with renewables groups calling it a punitive tax. Climate Resilience: A new federal report says Canada must prepare for a 5°C hotter future, with more severe wildfire seasons, heat days, sea-level rise, permafrost thaw and glacier loss. Fuel Tax Relief Reality Check: Regina drivers say the extended federal fuel excise tax pause (10 cents/litre) isn’t enough as gas and especially diesel prices stay high. Trade Pressure on Energy Exports: Canada’s July trade surplus shrank to $769M as energy and metal exports fell while imports rose, ahead of new U.S. 50% tariffs. Nuclear Tech Update: ABB is modernizing control and safety systems at Romania’s Cernavodă Unit 1 as refurbishment targets another 30-year run.

Trade & Energy Exports: Canada’s merchandise trade surplus shrank to C$769M in July as energy and metal exports fell while imports rose, with the U.S. still taking 66% of exports—a tougher setup as new 50% U.S. tariffs loom. Data Centres & Power Costs: Ottawa rolled out a federal framework for data-centre development, pushing developers to minimize water use, avoid shifting electricity costs to Canadians, and deliver lasting local benefits—as opposition grows. B.C. Grid Build: Construction started on the North Coast Transmission Line in northern B.C., aimed at expanding electricity supply and supporting projects like LNG and mining. EV Incentives: Federal EV rebates are driving record Ontario sales, but Ottawa’s next moves could slow momentum. Geopolitics & Oil Routes: Trump floated renaming the Strait of Hormuz as “Trump Strait,” underscoring how shipping chokepoints keep feeding energy-market jitters. Renewables: Casella and Waga Energy brought a third RNG facility online at a Pennsylvania landfill.

Canada–U.S. Trade Friction: The U.S. and Canada remain locked in a tariff standoff after talks collapsed, with Washington pressing demands that Canada says would hit domestic industry—keeping energy-sector planning in the crosshairs. Fuel Tax Relief: Ottawa extended the federal gas tax suspension into 2027, a direct pressure release for drivers and a key talking point for energy affordability. Diesel Price Anxiety: Commentary and market coverage keep flagging diesel as the near-term pain point as geopolitical shocks lift fuel costs. Manitoba Hydro Procurement: Canada-U.S. trade tensions are complicating Manitoba Hydro’s plan to buy gas turbines for its Brandon expansion, raising uncertainty around timing and sourcing. Quebec Oil & Gas Court Process: Questerre signed a mediation protocol in Quebec proceedings, aiming to pause next steps for at least 120 days while parties work through the dispute. Electricity Infrastructure Push: Canada is also moving to accelerate clean power infrastructure, with workforce and grid modernization themes showing up alongside transformer and storage supply announcements. Uranium Supply: Paladin’s Langer Heinrich mine enters 2027 with a sizable uranium contract book, reinforcing long-term nuclear fuel demand signals. Geopolitics & Shipping: Trump’s “Trump Strait” talk over the Strait of Hormuz adds to uncertainty around global oil shipping routes, feeding volatility that matters for Canadian energy markets.

Monetary Policy & Energy Prices: The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25%, warning that new U.S. tariffs and threats of further action could slow the recovery, while high oil prices and refinery margins raise the risk of spillover into broader prices. Fuel Tax Relief: Ottawa is extending the federal gas tax holiday and diesel excise suspension until Jan. 31, 2027, drawing praise from the Canadian Taxpayers Federation and Restaurants Canada as fuel costs keep squeezing household budgets and restaurant margins. Diesel Shock Watch: With Middle East tensions and tight global supply, diesel prices are surging south of the border, underscoring how quickly the Strait of Hormuz can feed into transportation and food costs in Canada too. Grid & Storage Policy: Energy Storage Canada released a report urging Ontario to create a “Distributed Reliability Track” to better value and procure behind-the-meter and distribution-connected storage as demand grows. Workforce Buildout: Federal Jobs Minister Patty Hajdu launched an Energy & Electricity Workforce Alliance to tackle skills shortages and speed grid modernization. EV Charging at Ports: Kempower and DP World signed a framework agreement to standardize fast-charging across DP World terminals in Canada, supporting electrification of port equipment. Nuclear Progress: NuScale said it has fabricated first-of-a-kind boron-oxide pellets for its SMR safety system, a step toward commercialization. Trade Tensions in the Background: The week’s energy backdrop is still dominated by U.S.-Iran conflict and Canada-U.S. tariff friction, with markets watching both.

Critical Minerals & Metals: Rome Resources says it’s boosted the estimated tin content of its Kalayi deposit in the DRC by 45%, placing it among high-grade tin resources and pointing to possible further upside from nearby mineralised zones. Battery Supply Chain: Nano One says it will extend its One-Pot LFP cathode licensing strategy beyond China via regional DevCos, citing growing LFP demand and localization pressure in Canada, the US and Europe. Power & Markets: Renewed US-Iran tensions pushed oil higher and dragged global stocks, with Canada’s TSX down as yields rose. Nuclear Policy Debate: A fresh discussion on reforming nuclear regulation highlights how regulators are being reshaped to keep pace with new nuclear plans. Natural Gas Shock in Canada’s Orbit: Canadian-owned Methanex plans to close its Taranaki methanol operations in New Zealand and sell off gas entitlements as declining supply makes the site unsustainable—an example of how gas availability can quickly reshape industrial footprints. Electricity Costs & Data Centres: Pembina Institute analysis says Alberta’s planned Meta data centre could add $270 to $460 a year to household power bills, even if transmission savings are possible. Logistics for Canadian Exports: Manitoba’s Port of Churchill loaded its first grain shipment in six years, using the rebuilt Hudson Bay Railway, and is also moving into critical minerals exports.

Energy Policy: Federal Energy Minister Tim Hodgson says Ottawa is pushing to get oilsands and other major projects built while diversifying customers beyond the U.S., calling energy and critical minerals Canada’s “best cards” in the trade war. AI Governance: The U.S. urged G20 members to avoid new AI rules and back “Carolina Principles” that prioritize foundational research and restraint on regulation. Trade Tensions/Geography: In a fresh escalation, U.S. Rep. Jimmy Patronis introduced the “Lake America Act” to rename Lake Ontario in U.S. records, following Trump’s executive order tied to the Canada dispute. Markets: Canada’s TSX fell about 400 points in late-morning trading as oil rose and helped energy stocks, while the Canadian dollar held near 71.9 U.S. cents. Renewables/Storage: Northern Sun Energy expanded its leadership team to support a growing solar and battery storage pipeline in Canada and the U.S. Corporate Deal: Bombardier agreed to acquire MHI Canada Aerospace assets in Mississauga, adding aerostructure capacity and about 750 employees. Safety/Industry: Algoma Steel pleaded guilty in an Ontario Health and Safety Act case tied to the 2023 death of a contract worker.

Venezuela Oil Deal Fallout: Trump is touting a “biggest oil deal in world history” with Venezuela, saying the US has a stake in vast reserves after a raid and amid legal/economic questions about how the arrangement works; Reuters reports US-backed North American Blue Energy Partners will take over some fields previously run by Chinese and Russian firms, with the White House describing US holding rights and production access. Middle East Energy Pressure: Trump also claimed the Strait of Hormuz is “in extremely good shape” with US naval help, while markets remain jumpy after US strikes on Iranian targets pushed Brent back above $90 and rattled stocks and bond yields. Canada Grid & Data Demand: Canada’s electricity crunch is getting sharper as AI data centres could need 3–5 GW by 2030, and a push to wire provinces together via east-west transmission is framed as a nation-building fix. Lithium Supply Chain: LG Energy Solution signed a long-term lithium carbonate deal with Smackover Lithium (backed by Standard Lithium and Equinor), starting in 2029, aiming to strengthen North American battery materials. Local Power Planning: Prince George and other communities are debating data centre rules as energy use and environmental concerns collide with investment hopes. Battery Swapping Push: Magna is investing $35M more into Yuma Energy to expand battery swapping across India for EVs and fleets. Gas Prices Watch: Regina saw a sharp weekly drop, but analysts warn volatility ahead tied to Iran tensions and global refinery disruptions.